Growthology

This Week: Economic Bloggers Forum 2013

On this Friday, April 11, Brad DeLong will be hosting the 5th Annual Economics Bloggers Forum here at the Kauffman Foundation. The event will be livestreamed here: http://new.livestream.com/kauffmanfoundation/ebf2013. Last year, audience members and sometimes even panelists while they were up on stage were live tweeting their activities (hashtag TBD). I'll be working on a post-event report I hope to draft speedily. DeLong has a draft of his introductory remarks on his blog (I have been to many conferences that run over time so I particularly enjoyed this note: "Moderators are encouraged to, in the words of King Reheboam, chastise those who fail to respect the discourse not with whips, but with scorpions.")

Fifth Annual Kauffman Economic Webloggers' Forum 2013: Economic Weblogging, Financial Weblogging, Weblogging Economists, and Economics of Weblogging...

...all of these are topics that I think fall within the proper purview of this event. And now that they have given me the keys, I am trying to think about how to make it as productive as possible.

Here is a draft of what I might say to open the conference on April 12, 2013, at 9 AM CDT:

Thirty-five years ago my father bought my family’s first personal computer. Eighteen years ago my former roommate Paul Mende told me:

Hey, this World-Wide-Web thing is revolutionizing scholarly communication in Physics via the http://arxiv.org/ web server. You should check it out.

Fourteen years ago I noticed that both of my mentions in the then-most recent Foreign Affairs--one by Jagdish Bhagwati and one by Paul Krugman--had come not from things I had published but from things I had thrown up on my website...

Twelve years ago I decided that somebody should go all-in and attempt to win the intellectual influence game via the strategy of always-putting-something-new-and-interesting-up-on-the-web. And as a guy with tenure at an institution that seemed to me to be the global optimum, I was one of the few people in the world who could do so with no significant possible downside risk.

And today here we all are. Everybody here has at least tried hard to significantly raise the level of the debate wherever their feet have trod on matters economic, and tried hard to raise it significantly above what it would otherwise have been--to evade the dumbness filters that surrounded us and impeded communication and education. We all seem to have come remarkably close to maximizing the win, for some value of “maximize” and “win”, at least for ourselves if not for our institutions and our causes.

But the struggle is ongoing. There is still an enormous amount of headroom.

How do we keep maximizing our collective personal win? What are the tools, networks, and communities that we are going to use and deal with in the future? How will we deal with the other communities and modalities of communication on our borders. We, of course, seek total universal domination. Is that realistic? If so, how? If not, for what should we settle and how should we settle for it? And how do we maximize the societal win?

---

Does this draft introduction have a chance of triggering the kind of conversation on April 12 that it would be useful to see? If not, what should I say instead? And what else should I say to open the conference? Suggestions welcome.

The conference is invitation only, alas! For our budget and our space is very limited...

Save the Date: Economic Bloggers Forum 2013

I did not want to scoop Brad DeLong since he is organizing the event, but he has now announced so I will reiterate: the Fifth Annual Kauffman Foundation Economic Webloggers' Conference will take place on Friday, April 12.

This conference, being hosted for a fifth time, is an invitation-only event to top bloggers in the economics sphere to discuss a variety of topics in economics, finance, and journalism. We'll post updates as the event draws closer. But for now, save April 12 as the date for the live stream--we plan to stream the event here on Growthology the same as last year (video and agenda from last year is here). Given the audience, expect a lot of live tweeting during the day.

 

High-Skill Immigration: A Resource (Part 2)

Last week, in response to Adam Ozimek’s call for more blogging about high-skilled immigration (HSI), I gave you a summary of Kauffman Foundation research on the topic. This week for Practically Friday we look at research, legislation, and resources by others in the same space that we find interesting: supporting the idea of an urgent need for immigration policy reform regarding HSI.

There’s a ton out there, so dig in:

Legislation/Policy
(Bill summaries from the American Immigration Lawyers Association unless otherwise noted)

• Department of Homeland Security Reforms January 31, 2012 and August 12, 2011 (one year and six month anniversaries of Startup America) to “attract and retain highly skilled immigrants.”
  
  
• U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ (USCIS) Entrepreneurs in Residence program to “utilize industry expertise to strengthen USCIS policies and practices surrounding immigrant investors, entrepreneurs and workers with specialized skills, knowledge, or abilities.”
  
  
• BRAINS Act (S. 3553) - Introduced by Sen. Schumer (D-NY) on 9/19/12 - Provides for immigrants visas for certain advanced STEM graduates, student visa reform, age-out protections for children, retention of priority dates, and family reunifications for high-skilled workers.
  
  
• Attracting the Best and Brightest Act of 2012 (H.R. 6412) - Introduced by Rep. Lofgren (D-CA) on 9/14/12 - Provides up to 50,000 visas available to immigrations who 1) possess a graduate degree in STEM fields from qualifying U.S. research institution; 2) have an employment offer from a U.S. employer in field related to degree; 3) are the subject of an approved labor certification; 4) will receive a wage that is at least the actual wage paid by employer to all other individuals with similar experience/qualifications. Makes unused STEM visas available for other employment-based visa categories.
  
  
• American Investment and Job Creation Act of 2012 (H.R. 6210) - Introduced by Rep. Conyers (D-MI) on 7/26/12 - Provides an employment-based immigrant visa for an alien entrepreneur who has engaged in a new commercial enterprise that has 1) within the four years prior to the filing of a petition, created full-time employment for at least five U.S. workers, or in the case of a Distressed Area Development Zone, for at least three U.S. workers; and 2) received enough investment or revenue during this period to support employment creation requirements.
  
  
• Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act (H.R. 3012) - Passed by the House on 11/29/11, released from hold by the Senate on 7/11/12 with additional H1-B enforcement provisions - Introduced by Rep. Chaffetz (R-UT) on 9/22/11 - Eliminates the employment-based per-country cap entirely by fiscal year 2015 and raises the family-sponsored per-country cap from 7% to 15%.
  
  
• SMART Jobs Act (S. 3192) - Introduced by Senators Alexander (R-TN) and Coons (D-DE) on 5/16/12 - Would establish an F-4 nonimmigrant visa for students pursuing an advanced degree in mathematics, engineering technology, or the physical sciences in the United States. It would also authorize those students, after obtaining employment related to their field of study, to become permanent residents.
  
  
• The STAR Act (S. 3185) - Introduced by Sen. Cornyn (R-TX) on 5/15/12 - Would allocate 55,000 immigrant visas for eligible STEM graduates of qualifying U.S. research institutions who have job offers in related fields. The visas will be offset by the elimination of the diversity visa program.
  
  
• STAPLE Act (H.R. 399) - Introduced by Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) on 1/24/11 - To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to authorize certain aliens who have earned a Ph.D. degree from a United States institution of higher education in a field of science, technology, engineering, or mathematics to be admitted for permanent residence and to be exempted from the numerical limitations on H-1B nonimmigrants. (from govtrack.us)
  
  
• STEM Jobs Act (H.R. 6429)* - Introduced by Rep. Smith (R-TX) on 9/18/12 - Voted on in the House on 9/20/12 and failed by a vote of 257 to 158 - Creates new visa categories for foreign PhD and masters graduates in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) and eliminates the diversity immigrant program.
  
  
• Startup Act 2.0 (H.R. 5893 and S. 3217) - House: Introduced by Rep. Grimm (R-NY) on 6/5/12 - Senate: Introduced by Sen. Moran (R-KS) on 5/22/12 - Partially-based on a Kauffman Foundation research report entitled “The Startup Act” - see Part 1 for more details.
  
  *Bill Failed 

Research Papers
(See also: http://www.immigrationresearch-info.org/research)

• Investing in the Human Capital of Immigrants, Strengthening Regional Economies by Audrey Singer - Brookings Institution - September 20, 2012
  
  
• The Search for Skills: Demand for H-1B Immigrant Workers in U.S. Metropolitan Areas by Neil G. Ruiz, Jill H. Wilson, and Shyamali Choudhury - Brookings Institution - July 18, 2012
  
  
• Patent Pending: How Immigrants Are Reinventing the American Economy - Partnership for a New American Economy - June 2012
  
  
• Immigrant Small Business Owners: A Significant and Growing Part of the Economy by David Dyssegaard Kallick - Fiscal Policy Institute - June 2012
  
  
• Immigrant Contributions to Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Mario Kranjac - 4% Growth Project, George W. Bush Institute - Summer 2012
  
  
• Immigrant Entrepreneurs and Small Business Owners, and their Access to Financial Capital by Robert W. Fairlie - U.S. Small Business Administration - May 2012
  
  
• The U.S. Immigration System: Potential Benefits of Reform by Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney - The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution - May 2012
  
  
• Immigration and American Jobs by Madeline Zavodn - American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and Partnership for a New American Economy - December 2011
  
  
• The “New American” Fortune 500 - Partnership for a New American Economy - June 2011
  
  
• Which Immigrants Are Most Innovative and Entrepreneurial? Distinctions by Entry Visa by Jennifer Hunt - NBER - April 2009
  
  
• How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation? by Jennifer Hunt and Marjolaine Gauthier-Loiselle - NBER - September 2008
  
  
• Brain Circulation: How High-Skill Immigration Makes Everyone Better Off by AnnaLee Saxenian - The Brookings Institution - Winter 2002

Video

• A Global View of High-Skilled Laborers by Neil G. Ruiz, Senior Policy Analyst and Associate Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, July 6, 2012:
  
  

• Foreigners Welcome? The Economics of High-Skilled Immigration by Dr. Antony Davies, Associate Professor of Economics, Duquesne University - Presentation at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Marcy 31, 2009:
  
  

Books

• Beside the Golden Door: U.S. Immigration Reform in a New Era of Globalization by Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
  
  
• Brain Gain: Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy by Darrell M. West
  
  
• Ethnic Entrepreneurs: Immigrant Business in Industrial Societies by Roger Waldinger, Howard Aldrich, and Robin Ward
  
  
• Immigrant, Inc.: Why Immigrant Entrepreneurs Are Driving the New Economy (and how they will save the American worker) by Richard Herman and Robert L. Smith
  
  
• Transnational and Immigrant Entrepreneurship in a Globalized World edited by Benson Honig, Israel Drori, and Barbara Carmichael

Blogs

• Brookings Immigration by the Brookings Institution
  
  
• 4% Growth Project by the George W. Bush Institute
  
  
• Immigration Blog by the Center for Immigration Studies
  
  
• ImmigrationProf Blog by Kevin R. Johnson, Bill O. Hing, and Rose Cuison Villazor
  
  
• Noahpinion by Noah Smith
  
  
• Open Borders by Bryan Caplan

Recent Articles/Op-Eds

• Bloggers and Economists are Failing on Immigration by Adam Ozimek - Forbes - October 7, 2012
  
  
• Immigrants Needed by Adam Ozimek - Forbes - October 4, 2012
  
  
• Immigration: The Forgotten Issue by Matthew Yglesias - Slate.com - Moneybox - October 4, 2012
  
  
• The Secret to U.S. Growth in the 21st Century: More Asians by Noah Smith - The Atlantic -October 2, 2012
  
  
• Washington's New Twist on Human Sacrifice by L. Gordon Crovitz - Wall Street Journal -September 30, 2012
  
  
• Fixing the capitalist machine: Some sensible ideas for reviving America’s entrepreneurial spirit - The Economist (Schumpeter) - September 29, 2012
  
  
• The U.S. Needs More Immigrants to Grow the Economy and Create Jobs by Matthew Denhart - Huffington Post - September 26, 2012
  
  
• Should high-skilled immigrants get special treatment? by David Grant - Christian Science Monitor - September 16, 2012
  
  
• Incubating Ideas in the U.S., Hatching Them Elsewhere by Alexandra Starr - Wall Street Journal - September 11, 2012
  
  
• If You Want More Jobs, You Should Want More Immigrants by Steve Case - The Atlantic - September 11, 2012
  
  
• America’s Irrational Immigration Fear by Vivek Wadhwa - The Washington Post - July 30, 2012
  
  
• Answers to Your Questions on Skilled Immigration by Catherine Rampell - Economix, New York Times - July 25, 2012
  
  
• Is America falling behind in the skilled worker race? by Neil Ruiz and Shyamali Choudhury - CNN - July 19, 2012
  
  
• America’s other immigration problem: Report outlines contributions from highly-skilled immigrants by Emi Kolawole - Ideas @ Innovations, The Washington Post - June 26, 2012
  
  
• H1-B Visa Quotas Greatly Restrain Small Business Expansion by David Bier - Forbes - June 17, 2012
  
  
• Give Us Your Geniuses: Why Seeking Smart Immigrants is a No-Brainer by Adam Ozimek and Noah Smith - The Atlantic - June 2012
  
  
• Why does the government halt skilled immigration? by Alex Nowrasteh - The Hill’s Congress Blog - June 22, 2012
  
  
• Positive New Steps to Reform High-Skilled Immigration by Alex Nowrasteh - Forbes - June 3, 2012
  
  
• Immigration Reform Is Key to Job Creation by David Park - Economic Intelligence, USA Today - March 23, 2012
  
  
• The Hub Nation - The Economist - April 22, 2010

Ah, but there’s more - so much more - out there on the subject, and lots of opinions about the proposed legislation. I’d love to hear your thoughts on key research I might have missed (or blogs, books, etc.), and would also love to see more blog posts on the high-skill immigration as a result of these two resources.

High-Skill Immigration: A Resource (Part 1)

Earlier this week in his post on Forbes.com Adam Ozimek challenged bloggers and economists to write more on the subject of high-skill immigration as an economic policy lever. Ozimek is frustrated because this is an issue of extreme importance and urgency on a national scale (we agree), but it doesn’t get blogged about much because it’s really not that controversial. Most people are of the opinion that allowing more highly skilled and highly educated immigrants to stay in the United States is a good thing, but national policies on the matter have yet to change.

To add fuel to the blogging fire and to provide something of practical use for Practically Friday, I present you with a wealth of research on the topic. This is part one of two posts: the first is specifically Kauffman-funded research and resources, the second will be outside research and resources.

The Kauffman Foundation has funded a great deal of research regarding immigrant entrepreneurs since 2007, primarily written by Vivek Wadhwa and company. The latest report, America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs: Then and Now, is Part VII in Wadhwa’s Immigration and the American Economy series, which examines “the economic contributions of skilled legal immigrants in the United States, what is different about them, what obstacles they face with the U.S. immigration system and why tens of thousands of skilled immigrants and would-be immigrants are heading back to their home countries and what the implications are for the United States.”

Tom Brokaw highlighted some of Wadhwa et al.’s research for NBC Nightly News in 2011 as a part of its “America at the Crossroads” series, interviewing some of these young foreign entrepreneurs, most of who will be forced to return to their home countries once their temporary visas expire, taking the jobs they created with them.

You can check out the entire research paper series through the links below:

• Part I: America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs
• Part II: Education, Entrepreneurship and Immigration
• Part III: Intellectual Property, the Immigration Backlog, and a Reverse Brain-Drain
• Part IV: America’s Loss is the World’s Gain
• Part V: Losing the World’s Best and Brightest
• Part VI: The Grass is Indeed Greener in India and China for Returnee Entrepreneurs
• Part VII: America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs: Then and Now

Wadhwa has also written a new book based on this research, The Immigrant Exodus: Why America Is Losing the Global Race to Capture Entrepreneurial Talent, and created a website as a resource for journalists and a voice for immigrant entrepreneurs: ImmigrantExodus.com. The book argues that with increased global competition, current U.S. immigration policies leave foreign-born entrepreneurs no choice but to take their innovations to other countries, as shown by the unprecedented drop in the number of immigrant-founded, high-growth startups (see Part VII). This exodus creates a multi-trillion dollar loss for the United States and an economic gain for countries such as India and China.

Other entrepreneurship and immigration research from the Foundation includes:

• The Kauffman-designed Startup Act, which gave rise to the Startup Act 2.0 (S. 3217 and H.R. 5893), currently being sponsored by Senators Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), and Mark Warner (D-Va.). The bill includes language to create new visas for immigrant entrepreneurs (Sections 3, 4, and 5).
  
  
  
  
• Reforming Immigration Law to Allow More Foreign Student Entrepreneurs to Launch Job-Creating Ventures in the United States by Anthony Luppino, John Norton, and Malika Simmons outlines specific measures to modify immigration law in the United States to attract and encourage talented international students to start job-creating businesses in the U.S.
  
  
• A chapter in Better Capitalism: Renewing the Entrepreneurial Strength of the American Economy by Robert E. Litan and Carl J. Schramm entitled “Importing Entrepreneurs” discussing immigration policy regarding highly skilled entrepreneurs. “Welcoming and even recruiting skilled immigrants, especially those wanting to launch a business in the United States, can be – and is – both good economics and good politics.”
  
  
• Two Kauffman-funded policy briefs by the National Foundation for American Policy:
  
  • Keeping Talent in America argues that international STEM graduates (science, technology, engineering, or math) from advanced universities should be handed a green card along with their diplomas to encourage them to stay in the United States and start a business.
  • Still Waiting: Green Card Problems Persist for High Skill Immigrants points out that the increased wait times for highly-skilled immigrant entrepreneurs to get green cards (up to 70 years!) is a threat that could “deprive the country of talented individuals who will choose to develop innovations, make their careers and raise their families in other nations” and offers solutions to remedy the backlog.
• A Fordham Urban Law Journal article, “Making the Case for Changing U.S. Policy Regarding Highly Skilled Immigrants,” by John E. Tyler and Peter H. Schuck, that highlights the importance of highly skilled immigrant entrepreneurs to the economy, stating that these entrepreneurs in STEM fields “have disproportionately catalyzed and expanded U.S. innovation, jobs, wealth creation and resulting advances in human welfare.” A version of this article was also a chapter in the Kauffman Foundation book Rules for Growth (chapter 4).
  
  
• Knowledge Economy Immigration: A Priority for U.S. Growth Policy by Robert E. Litan and Tim Kane, states that the “single most important policy reform that will boost long term growth in the United States is to reduce the barriers facing highly skilled and highly educated immigrants. At least 50,000 workers with advanced degrees are sent out of the United States each year, although they have already passed security tests and become part of the productive fabric of the U.S. economy. In a world where the knowledge economy adds more value to national incomes than physical labor, the current U.S. stance of exiling many of the smartest people in the world imposes self-inflicted wounds on our currently troubled economy.” [emphasis mine]
  
  
• The Budgetary Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Reform by Arlene Holen at the Technology Policy Institute. Through a grant from the Kauffman Foundation, Holen examined the fiscal effects of immigrant entrepreneurs and concluded that “legislation considered by Congress during the last few years to loosen green card and H-1B caps could reduce the federal deficit on the order of $100 billion over ten years.” [emphasis mine]
  
  
• America’s Great Job Creators: Immigrant Entrepreneurs – a Kauffman-produced video featuring entrepreneurs from India, Russia, Korea, and other countries about the potential benefits from increasing the number of green cards so that foreign entrepreneurs can start businesses and create jobs in the U.S.
  
  

The major takeaway from all this research is that America loses big – and I mean big –when highly skilled immigrant entrepreneurs return to their native countries if they can’t start a business in the United States. In order to have a vibrant, flourishing economy, create jobs on the scale this country needs, and help reduce the federal deficit, the U.S. needs to recognize the contributions of these skilled immigrants and encourage them to stay and continue to create businesses. In order to do that, our visa system needs to change, and quickly.

And that, as Ozimek points out, is absolutely worth blogging about. As he puts it, “It’s the most important economic issue of our time, far more important than tax reform, and it is a lever that could help improve a lot of problems we have in this country. We should be shouting this from the rooftops daily.”

Monday Reads

A passionate take by Umair Haque on the underlying meaning of the Libor scandal.

For all those economists who think housing supply elasticity, and not air conditioning, was the real spur to the Sunbelt's growth. And it seems there are several mega-cities that will rely heavily on air conditioning.

A good, if partial, overview of the ACA decision (albeit less partial than most other coverage).

Where did the modern Olympics come from?

History and today intersect in Greece.

 

Economics Bloggers Forum 2012

The video from the fourth annual Economics Bloggers Forum is now available, embedded below. Thanks to all who participated. There were a few dozen participants in Kansas City, and a little less than 1,000 unique visitors to the live stream.

At the end of the last panel, Robert Litan asked for an informal show of hands--pessimistic or optimistic for the future of the U.S.'s ability to find new innovations? Most in the room responded in the positive camp. I think responses were impacted by the time of day, i.e. if the poll was asked after the end of the first session, more pessimism would be expressed.

I suspect the panel most relevant to entrepreneurs is the fourth, particularly comments on changes to patent law. The panel does cover the following point, but it's worth mentioning (again) that patents involve only a very small portion of innovations.

 

Bloggers Forum Links:

• Ezra Klein has commentary on the first half of the event.
• Josh Barro offers thoughts on the second panel, which featured John Goodman’s presentation of the Congressional Budget Office’s Long-Term Budget Outlook data (Goodman created the charts using CBO data, though I am a fan of the originals here). Matthew Yglesias comments on this session as well. Later this month, the Kauffman Foundation will be releasing a report on healthcare reform which we will talk about here on growthology.
• The Sketchbook of Tyler Cowen as shown in the welcoming remarks.

 

The list of panel participants is reprinted below for posterity:

Panel discussion – Recovery and Long-Term Growth

Brad DeLong, Grasping Reality
Scott Sumner, TheMoneyIllusion
Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution
Karl Smith, Modeled Behavior

Panel discussion – After the Election, How Do We Fix the Budget?

John Goodman, National Center for Policy Analysis
Ezra Klein, The Washington Post
Donald Marron, www.dmarron.com

Panel discussion – After the Election, What is the Solution to Income Inequality?

Mark Thoma, Economist’s View
Arnold Kling, EconLog
Matt Yglesias, Moneybox

Panel discussion – Intellectual Property: Protecting Rights or Protectionism?

Michael Mandel, Mandel on Innovation and Growth
Tim Lee, Disruptive Economics
Alex Tabarrok, Marginal Revolution

Today's Readings Relevant to Entrepreneurship

The intersection between tight labor markets, housing costs, and the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship: Free Exchange. The work by Fairlie and Chatterji that Ryan cites here is terrifically important and has not gotten nearly enough attention.

Why is carried interest taxed as it is? Observational Epidemiology. 

What the studies say about private equity. Dealbook (via Marginal Revolution). Tyler sums it up: "'Some positives, lots of uncertainty' would be a good description of the available evidence."

Brad Feld on the intra-metropolitan geography of entrepreneurship. We probably need some new mapping tools. Feld Thoughts.

As an aside, I completely agree with Brad that "entrepreneurial density" is a good measure of a region's culture of entrepreneurship, but I don't know if we can yet measure it precisely. For one thing, we need to agree on a common definition of entrepreneurship. Then we need to figure out how to count it--government data are not entirely helpful here. Then we need to figure out what it means. One of our research assistants has been looking over Business Dynamics Statistics data on employment in young firms as a share of total employment in each state over the past three decades. We will post some charts and findings soon, but as the data relate, so far, to existing literature, I am reminded of The Princess Bride:

Vizzini: "He didn't fall? INCONCEIVABLE!"

Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

(h/t to PK for the reminder of this pricelessly fungible line the other day)

Videos from the 3rd annual Kauffman Economics Bloggers Forum

Yesterday, I was privileged to host the 3rd annual Kauffman Economics Bloggers Forum at the Kauffman Foundation's conference center in Kansas City.  Thanks to the quick work of Matt Long and his team, eleven of the talks are available for viewing online here.  These includes 10-15 minutes presentations by

Tyler Cowen
Virginia Postrel
Bryan Caplan
Steve Waldman
Megan McArdle
Arnold Kling
Dean Baker
Felix Salmon
Ben Wildavsky
Micky Kaus

There were technical glitches with two of the presentations by Lynne Kiesling and Robert X. Cringely, both involving external video feeds.  If those are resolved, I will post accordingly. 

Thanks to all the bloggers who attended and participated, particularly to Mickey Kaus who agreed after much pleading by yours truly to talk to the group as a late and much-welcomed bonus speaker.  We at Kauffman believe the advent of blogging is a critical innovation in human society, and, as Steve Waldman mentioned, decision-making in a deomcracy. 

Here is Tyler's talk ... hopefully this works as an embed: 

A New Growthologist

Hi, I'm Brink Lindsey, and back in September I joined the Kauffman Foundation as a senior scholar in research and policy. After a few months of getting my bearings, I figure it's time to hop back on the blogging horse.

Let me start off with just a little background. Before coming to Kauffman, I was affiliated for many years with the Cato Institute -- as director of regulatory studies, adjunct scholar, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies, and most recently vice president for research.  Although my work ranged broadly at Cato, the subject that has always been at the center of my intellectual interests is economic growth -- including both its underlying causes and its broader social consequences. So it makes sense that, even though I'm still new here, working at Kauffman and writing for a blog called Growthology feel like coming home.

Substantive posting to follow shortly.

On CNBC, talking Bloggers Survey

Here is a link to CNBC Erin Burnett's interview this afternoon http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1624672802&play=1 discussing the latest Kauffman Foundation economics bloggers survey (PDF link).

Honestly, I think this one is the most interesting one yet (Q4 is the fourth we have ever published), mainly due to very interesting topical questions submitted by bloggers. 

However, the debate on CNBC was about whether bloggers are good or bad for the economy.  Obviously, I am a huge fan of the transformative power of the blogosphere, and I hope I represented them well.  While emphasizing the diversity and depth of opinion, I neglected to mention how ENTREPRENEURIAL the technology is.  That's worth remembering.

On CNBC, talking Bloggers Survey

Here is a link to CNBC Erin Burnett's interbiew this afternoon http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1624672802&play=1 discussing the latest Kauffman Foundation economics bloggers survey (PDF link).

Honestly, I think this one is the most interesting one yet (Q4 is the fourth we have ever published), mainly due to very interesting topical questions submitted by bloggers. 

However, the debate on CNBC was about whether bloggers are good or bad for the economy.  Obviously, I am a huge fan of the transformative power of the blogosphere, and I hope I represented them well.  While emphasizing the diversity and depth of opinion, I neglected to mention how ENTREPRENEURIAL the technology is.  That's worth remembering.

Blogger questions from the KEO Q2

Five bloggers submitted their own questions to this quarter's Kauffman Economic Outlook, which I think turned out very well and will want to continue.  Here are the results, and I'll withhold comment for now.  Others are welcome to copy and repost individual charts. 

 
  
 
  

Kauffman Economic Outlook Q2

Read the Kauffman Economic Outlook Q2 2010: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers (PDF)  

Here are the first few charts:

 
  

Policy Options, KEO part 2

The second set of questions from the Kauffman Economic Outlook Q1 2010 focus on policy options for the U.S. economy.  The summary text from the report itself is copied here:

Despite being a balanced panel in terms of political alignment (16 percent Republican, 19 percent Democratic, 47 percent independent, and roughly 18 percent libertarian/other), there is a strong consensus around many policy recommendations. Seventy-one percent of economics bloggers think the U.S. government is “too involved in the economy,” with only 17 percent calling for greater involvement. When asked what the government should be doing, the only policies with more than 50 percent support are: 1) to increase high-skill immigration (63 percent), and 2) to increase legal immigration at all skill levels (57 percent). Two policies stood out sharply with nearunanimous opposition: increasing business regulation (9 percent) and increasing tariffs (4 percent).

On taxation, the panel was widely in favor of lowering taxes on payrolls (74 percent) and income, both corporate (64 percent) and individual (62 percent). Likewise, there was strong support for higher taxes on gasoline/carbon (68 percent and 57 percent, respectively), and consumption (54 percent). A common battleground for tax policy is progressivity, but 47 percent of bloggers are calling for flatter taxes compared to 26 percent in favor of increased progressivity (i.e., even higher tax rates on higher incomes relative to lower incomes).

According to economics bloggers, the top three variables that policymakers should emphasize in a model of economic growth are human capital, innovation, and economic freedom. In a related question, bloggers were asked to rate the beneficial importance of numerous key players in the U.S. economy. One hundred percent of the panel rate entrepreneurs as “important” or “very important,” and innovation also had unanimous support. Only slightly less important are free trade and education, with nearly all respondents rating them as “important” or “very important.” In contrast, only 30 percent of economics bloggers think labor unions are important, and nearly 70 percent rate them as “unimportant” (numbers may not add to 100 due to non-responses and rounding). Opinion is decidedly mixed on manufacturing, while there is mild support for the importance of big business.

And here are the individual charts (in .gif format) from this section:

 
  

 

As a few observors have pointed out, not all of these policy recommendations might be as popular with a random sample survey of the American public. For example, increasing immigration is arguably a political non-starter. But that has been a top priority here at Kauffman as a boost to economic growth. I was pleased to see this had broad support from the econ bloggers panel, which again I would emphasize is politically balanced. 

Is it biased?  Naturally, a reader of the survey should wonder if this survey is biased. There is a big difference between an ideological bias versus an experiential bias. Indeed, the question of bias goes to heart of survey research. There are random sample surveys (like Gallup) that try to capture public opinion, and most econometric research aspires to the standard of an unbiased sample of observations. The KEO is not of the variety. The Kauffman Economic Outlook is a lot more like a co-authored research paper, with scores of co-authors.  Although some might characterize it as "expert" opinion, that seems to me like a diversionary label and conversation. 

It is trendy these days to hint that economists as a class of thinkers have been discredited for not forecasting the recession. That was the topic of a few panels at the recent American Economic Association conference in Atlanta, where a handful of economists were on hand who expressly had warned of the stock market bubble, the housing bubble, the financial dangers of leverage, various deficits, etc. Indeed, the much-maligned Alan Greenspan mentioned the dangers of Fannie and Freddie more times in Congressional testimony than most Congressman can count. Even if the vast majority of economists and economic commentators warn of the dangers of unsustainable budget deficits, we can never know the exact month when the U.S. will lose credibility and the dollar will fall, but that surely isn't proof of ignorance or failure of the discipline.

The point is that the KEO economics bloggers survey includes numerous voices who warned either of the coming recession or of pitfalls, or both. Even now, the sample includes a balance of opinions that differ on a range of issues.  Thus, finding areas of consensus, especially strong consensus, is a very interesting result.

Specifically, on the issue of taxes, this survey found a consensus for taxing consumption more. That would be unpopular, true. But the finding is not in isolation. Bloggers also overwhelmingly support lower taxes on work (payrolls) and income. The consensus to shift the tax burden should not be couched as a public-versus-expert paradox at all (as the public would probably favor such a change as well). Rather, the finding offers some common ground for policymakers in the years ahead.
 

What I Meant to Say . . .

Some timely humor, courtesy of here:

And I totally wish I'd had this poster in hand for yesterday's post:

If Only the Public Listened to Economists!!!

Most readers have seen the results of the Kauffman Economic Outlook, a survey of scores of economics bloggers from across the Internet. Kudos to Tim for pulling it together.

Not to sound crankish, but I just wanted to highlight a couple of surprising (to me, at least) reactions the survey results provoked from bloggers:

"Less tax on income, and more on consumption, particularly of energy and emissions. Sadly, the public doesn't seem too keen on the concept."

"In particular, I think we understand better than the typical citizen the role that government health programs play in the outlook for the deficit. And I think we understand better than others that private-sector labor unions are no longer significant."

At the risk of oversimplifying or reading too much into brief remarks, these reactions can perhaps be summarized as: the public is idiotic, economists (and especially economic bloggers) are smarter than the public, so the public should listen more to economists (especially economic bloggers). Such inescapable logic--on the heels of a severe recession that many of these economists swore wouldn't happen just before it actually did--would elicit derisive scoffs from the non-economist-don't-know-what's-good-for-them average members of the public that it seems to be my misfortune to hang around with.

Inaugural Kauffman Economic Outlook: survey of leading economics bloggers

Here is the first edition of the quarterly Kauffman Economic Outlook: survey of leading economics bloggers:

Download Kauffman Economic Outlook Q1 2010

It is very light on text, heavy on charts.  We offer a brief summary, but hope the collective opinions of the economics bloggers speak for themselves.

UPDATE: Here is a link to a public version of the survey with the exact questions and structure.  It is open to the public and we welcome your participation.  It will be interesting to see if readers of growthology have different opinions than the experts. 

Econ bloggers give DC mixed marks (a.k.a. Congress gets an F)

The question is "How do you grade the performance of the following organizations and institutions? (A = best, F = )"

Average answers (i.e. Grade Point Average) from 85 leading economics bloggers:

2.3    CBO, GAO, and other watchdogs
2.2    U.S. business community
2.0    European Central Bank
1.7    U.S. Federal Reserve
1.6    World Bank / IMF
1.2    Wall Street firms
0.7    U.S. Congress

Here is the chart:

 
What's this all about?  Tomorrow morning, the Kauffman Foundation will be releasing the results of an exciting new survey project that we have been working on for many months.  It is a survey of leading economics bloggers.  All of the questions were generated by and rank ordered by a blogger advisory board.  Today, we are releasing a teaser e-alert with results from one of the questions, a "report card" for major economic institutions.  It is fortunate that the teaser coincides with the major budget discussion because the best grade point average goes to the CBO as part of the Washington watchdog community.  Without the CBO, GAO, and similar watchdogs, Washington would probably be even more dysfunctional.

Maybe it's worth noting that the CBO has a blog?  (And no ... they did not participate in this survey!)

Remember When Twitter Overthrew a Religious-Military Dictatorship? Neither do I.

At the height of the post-election protests in Iran last summer, American media were abuzz with glee at the prospect that the paragon of utopian social media--Twitter--might actually play a key role in liberating Iranians from tyranny. We discussed this hyperbole-free topic a few times here at Growthology, but it seems that we now have actual evidence (as opposed to fact-free speculation) as to the role Twitter played. And? Quite small:

"[The study shows that such a tiny proportion of Iranians are on Twitter that any stories about a new movement based on the social network are meaningless."

Oh well.