Posted by Tim Kane at 09:59 AM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Read the Kauffman Economic Outlook Q2 2010: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers (PDF) ![]()
Here are the first few charts:
Posted by Tim Kane at 09:49 AM in Blogging, U.S. economy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The second set of questions from the Kauffman Economic Outlook Q1 2010 focus on policy options for the U.S. economy. The summary text from the report itself is copied here:
Despite being a balanced panel in terms of political alignment (16 percent Republican, 19 percent Democratic, 47 percent independent, and roughly 18 percent libertarian/other), there is a strong consensus around many policy recommendations. Seventy-one percent of economics bloggers think the U.S. government is “too involved in the economy,” with only 17 percent calling for greater involvement. When asked what the government should be doing, the only policies with more than 50 percent support are: 1) to increase high-skill immigration (63 percent), and 2) to increase legal immigration at all skill levels (57 percent). Two policies stood out sharply with nearunanimous opposition: increasing business regulation (9 percent) and increasing tariffs (4 percent).
On taxation, the panel was widely in favor of lowering taxes on payrolls (74 percent) and income, both corporate (64 percent) and individual (62 percent). Likewise, there was strong support for higher taxes on gasoline/carbon (68 percent and 57 percent, respectively), and consumption (54 percent). A common battleground for tax policy is progressivity, but 47 percent of bloggers are calling for flatter taxes compared to 26 percent in favor of increased progressivity (i.e., even higher tax rates on higher incomes relative to lower incomes).
According to economics bloggers, the top three variables that policymakers should emphasize in a model of economic growth are human capital, innovation, and economic freedom. In a related question, bloggers were asked to rate the beneficial importance of numerous key players in the U.S. economy. One hundred percent of the panel rate entrepreneurs as “important” or “very important,” and innovation also had unanimous support. Only slightly less important are free trade and education, with nearly all respondents rating them as “important” or “very important.” In contrast, only 30 percent of economics bloggers think labor unions are important, and nearly 70 percent rate them as “unimportant” (numbers may not add to 100 due to non-responses and rounding). Opinion is decidedly mixed on manufacturing, while there is mild support for the importance of big business.
And here are the individual charts (in .gif format) from this section:
As a few observors have pointed out, not all of these policy recommendations might be as popular with a random sample survey of the American public. For example, increasing immigration is arguably a political non-starter. But that has been a top priority here at Kauffman as a boost to economic growth. I was pleased to see this had broad support from the econ bloggers panel, which again I would emphasize is politically balanced.
Is it biased? Naturally, a reader of the survey should wonder if this survey is biased. There is a big difference between an ideological bias versus an experiential bias. Indeed, the question of bias goes to heart of survey research. There are random sample surveys (like Gallup) that try to capture public opinion, and most econometric research aspires to the standard of an unbiased sample of observations. The KEO is not of the variety. The Kauffman Economic Outlook is a lot more like a co-authored research paper, with scores of co-authors. Although some might characterize it as "expert" opinion, that seems to me like a diversionary label and conversation.
It is trendy these days to hint that economists as a class of thinkers have been discredited for not forecasting the recession. That was the topic of a few panels at the recent American Economic Association conference in Atlanta, where a handful of economists were on hand who expressly had warned of the stock market bubble, the housing bubble, the financial dangers of leverage, various deficits, etc. Indeed, the much-maligned Alan Greenspan mentioned the dangers of Fannie and Freddie more times in Congressional testimony than most Congressman can count. Even if the vast majority of economists and economic commentators warn of the dangers of unsustainable budget deficits, we can never know the exact month when the U.S. will lose credibility and the dollar will fall, but that surely isn't proof of ignorance or failure of the discipline.
The point is that the KEO economics bloggers survey includes numerous voices who warned either of the coming recession or of pitfalls, or both. Even now, the sample includes a balance of opinions that differ on a range of issues. Thus, finding areas of consensus, especially strong consensus, is a very interesting result.
Specifically, on the issue of taxes, this survey found a consensus for taxing consumption more. That would be unpopular, true. But the finding is not in isolation. Bloggers also overwhelmingly support lower taxes on work (payrolls) and income. The consensus to shift the tax burden should not be couched as a public-versus-expert paradox at all (as the public would probably favor such a change as well). Rather, the finding offers some common ground for policymakers in the years ahead.
Posted by Tim Kane at 01:53 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Some timely humor, courtesy of here:

And I totally wish I'd had this poster in hand for yesterday's post:

Posted by Dane Stangler at 09:39 AM in Blogging, Quotes, U.S. economy | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Most readers have seen the results of the Kauffman Economic Outlook, a survey of scores of economics bloggers from across the Internet. Kudos to Tim for pulling it together.
Not to sound crankish, but I just wanted to highlight a couple of surprising (to me, at least) reactions the survey results provoked from bloggers:
"Less tax on income, and more on consumption, particularly of energy and emissions. Sadly, the public doesn't seem too keen on the concept."
"In particular, I think we understand better than the typical citizen the role that government health programs play in the outlook for the deficit. And I think we understand better than others that private-sector labor unions are no longer significant."
At the risk of oversimplifying or reading too much into brief remarks, these reactions can perhaps be summarized as: the public is idiotic, economists (and especially economic bloggers) are smarter than the public, so the public should listen more to economists (especially economic bloggers). Such inescapable logic--on the heels of a severe recession that many of these economists swore wouldn't happen just before it actually did--would elicit derisive scoffs from the non-economist-don't-know-what's-good-for-them average members of the public that it seems to be my misfortune to hang around with.
Posted by Dane Stangler at 12:36 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Here is the first edition of the quarterly Kauffman Economic Outlook: survey of leading economics bloggers:
Download Kauffman Economic Outlook Q1 2010
It is very light on text, heavy on charts. We offer a brief summary, but hope the collective opinions of the economics bloggers speak for themselves.
UPDATE: Here is a link to a public version of the survey with the exact questions and structure. It is open to the public and we welcome your participation. It will be interesting to see if readers of growthology have different opinions than the experts.
Posted by Tim Kane at 09:59 AM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The question is "How do you grade the performance of the following organizations and institutions? (A = best, F = )"
Average answers (i.e. Grade Point Average) from 85 leading economics bloggers:
2.3 CBO, GAO, and other watchdogsHere is the chart:
What's this all about? Tomorrow morning, the Kauffman Foundation will be releasing the results of an exciting new survey project that we have been working on for many months. It is a survey of leading economics bloggers. All of the questions were generated by and rank ordered by a blogger advisory board. Today, we are releasing a teaser e-alert with results from one of the questions, a "report card" for major economic institutions. It is fortunate that the teaser coincides with the major budget discussion because the best grade point average goes to the CBO as part of the Washington watchdog community. Without the CBO, GAO, and similar watchdogs, Washington would probably be even more dysfunctional.
Maybe it's worth noting that the CBO has a blog? (And no ... they did not participate in this survey!)
Posted by Tim Kane at 11:54 AM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
At the height of the post-election protests in Iran last summer, American media were abuzz with glee at the prospect that the paragon of utopian social media--Twitter--might actually play a key role in liberating Iranians from tyranny. We discussed this hyperbole-free topic a few times here at Growthology, but it seems that we now have actual evidence (as opposed to fact-free speculation) as to the role Twitter played. And? Quite small:
"[The study shows that such a tiny proportion of Iranians are on Twitter that any stories about a new movement based on the social network are meaningless."
Oh well.
Posted by Dane Stangler at 10:02 AM in Blogging, Global | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Here's a video of the Kauffman Econ Bloggers Forum:
Thanks to Matt Pozel and Matt Long for an awesome production effort.
Posted by Tim Kane at 03:48 PM in Blogging, Capitalism, Economic Recovery, U.S. economy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
So, I'm getting a sense that the TypePad email function doesn't handle hyperlinks, spacing, paragraphs, bullets or indents based on the wordblob that was my last post.And it was credited to our administrator, Keith Mays, who may be secretly trying to take over. I keep hearing Keith mutter, "Today growthology, tomorrow the Foundation!" (Do people mutter exclamations?)
Anyway, here's the post as intended:
Posted by Tim Kane at 01:24 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
There must be an ongoing tally somewhere of the number of stories in newspapers about the future of newspapers. In the grand scheme of things, the number is no doubt tiny, but there is an aura of self-pity (inflated by self-importance) about it.
Posted by Dane Stangler at 04:32 PM in Blogging, CreativeDestruction, Human Capital, Jobs of the Future | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Someone's been reading Growthology. OK, I'm probably not the only one saying stuff like this.
Posted by Dane Stangler at 02:47 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
One of the things I like best about the web is the ability to keep track of what my friends and fellow bloggers are reading. That's why I've been a big fan of goodreads.com, and also why I have been keeping tabs on the reading habits of Publius, a loyal growthology reader. Publius, oddly enough, is a person whose identity is unkown to me, but I know of his(her?) books and reviews!
Another feature I like is the "What I'm Reading" posts by Tyler Cowen and Paul Kedrosky. Actually, I think it is the "Assorted Links" type of post that I am most fascinated by. So pithy. Actually, I was having this talk with new blogger Donald Marron a couple weeks ago, and he also wants to learn how to semi-automate the links post. I tried to write a few by hand / the old fashioned way / copy&paste&youknowthedrill a few times, but it was quite slow. Is there some kind of software add-on these bloggers are using to generate those posts?
It could easily be the case that Paul and Tyler are just hyper-productive.
Posted by Tim Kane at 02:07 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Mark Thoma, Professor, University of Oregon and author of the blog Economist's View
Posted by Tim Kane at 04:01 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Automation at factories means that there are simply fewer and fewer manufacturing jobs. And this is a good thing. Machinery does most of the work growing the food we eat, and producing the goods we use (durable and nondurable). What's left is information, hence the moniker "The Information Age."
But if this is the great era of data, then what's with the demise of so many information companies? Newspapers, Record Labels, Encyclopedias, all heading south.
The now-familiar struggles of the newspaper industry is in the news again with the brinksmanship in labor negotiations at the Boston Globe, as well-told by David Warsh in this week's economicprincipals.com essay. David is more optimistic than I about the business of newspapering, but I'd like to think I'm more optimistic about the future of journalism. He concludes,
Never mind Warren Buffett’s admonition over the weekend that there is no price at which he would consider a newspaper an attractive investment (he still has positions in two, the Buffalo News and the Washington Post). Repair work has never been his passion. With a little luck, the best regional papers – The Boston Globe, the Chicago Tribune, the Baltimore Sun, the Los Angeles Times – will wind up back in the hands of people who know how to run them. If so, the newspaper industry will return to a scaled-down semblance of its former self – a profitable and stable group of companies in the first-draft-of-history business. But then, I am a congenital optimist. I have sometimes been wrong.
Yet I find the story of Encarta even more interesting. Encarta, as you may recall, was the revolutionary Microsoft product that put an encyclopedia on a CD-ROM in 1993 which was the creatively destructive force that assaulted Encyclopedia Brittanica, first published around 1768. Now it is Encarta that will be shuttering -- this year, even refunding existing users rather than continue into 2010 -- signaling the acceleration of technology cycles in the new century. In this NYT piece, Randall Stross describes how the destroyer became the destroyee:
It’s hard to look at the end of the Encarta experiment without the free and much larger Wikipedia springing immediately to mind. But Encarta arguably would have failed even without that competition. The Google-indexed Web forms a virtual encyclopedia that Encarta never had a chance of competing against.
Encarta was conceived pre-Web and had a long gestation. In 1985, Bill Gates envisioned a CD-ROM encyclopedia as a “high-price, high-demand” product with the potential of becoming as profitable to Microsoft as Word or Excel.
Posted by Tim Kane at 04:54 PM in Blogging, Jobs of the Future | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
As Tyler mentioned first on his blog, our video team assembled this 8-minute video of highlights from his interview at the Economics Bloggers Forum. It's tremendous (kudos to Matt Pozel and Matt Long) and we sure appreciate Tyler taking time to sit down with us.
Posted by Tim Kane at 07:14 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Joel Achenbach writes my favorite sentence of the month so far (bolding added),
Blogworld is overrun with people who have never learned the beauty of the unpublished thought. I get tired of the gut reactions, the knee-jerk responses, the instantaneous neurological twitches, and what I believe are technically known among scientists as the mind-farts.
And of course, this would on the day that I finally sign up for Twitter, being the anti-Luddite-but-very-late-adopter (who still has no Mac by the way). Honestly, I'm not sure how I can let other people sign up for my Tweets, but you are welcome to listen in before all of my insto-brilliance burns out (I've already tweeted twice, and can feel the energy fading).
Seriously, I signed up like 60 minutes ago. Curse you, Achenbach. Stop stalking me!
Posted by Tim Kane at 06:06 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Have you ever wondered what Deliverance, the Ivy League, debt financing, and DNA have in common? Well, you're in luck: Harold Bradley has the answer.
Posted by Dane Stangler at 11:45 PM in Blogging, Recession | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
That was the question heading one of our Kauffman Econ Blogger Forum discussions. The panel spent most of the time discussing whether newspapers are dead (Scott Jagow's summary is here), which to me seems probable, if not obvious. That they are dying, no one can deny. Is it sad? Yes. Is the end of seeking truth in current events? Hardly.
What is likely to happen is that newspapers will evolve, perhaps so swiftly and completely that it will be hard to believe that the future species is related to the gray-paper-o-saurus. But will journalism die? That was a trick question. The answer in my mind is that bloggers are the new journalists. Or at least, some are. (Is Rushbo a journo?). In fact, it seems more accurate to critique the growing bias in newspapers than decry the savages in pajamas.
Insofar as we agree that journalism is the reporting of news in pursuit of objective truth, my belief is that this is a fundamental human motivation, the same spirit driving scientific curiosity. The day journalism dies is the day humanity is extinguished, and I'm still on the optimistic side of projecting neither of those events will occur, present recessions notwithstanding. That schools of journalism have downplayed objective truth exists, and some newspapers have abandoned ancient principles of objectivity, they have hastened the downfall of the daily printed word. But those are quibbles, really.
What's ultimately driving the evolution of journalism is the business model. A grimy gray broadsheet has some tactile appeal, about the same way that riding a horse has its appeal. But compared to the alternatives of jet planes and automobiles, the appeal is nostalgic. But the economics of newspapers (and maybe local news television) is eroding. The recession will accelerate the erosion, perhaps completely. The alternative is what exactly? Free content on YouTube and RealClear? Maybe. Or maybe the spectrum of news is much broader than what you imagine.
Maybe we should think about an infinitely long tail where people will pay, handsomely, for news about interests they deeply care about. The President will probably pay dearly for news about Iranian nukes, and the health of dear leaders in North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela. My friend Luis will subscribe to feeds about Star Wars action figures no doubt (and who wouldn't?).
This is all to say, Luis wonders if the business model for journalism won't look a lot like iTunes.
Posted by Tim Kane at 11:45 AM in Blogging, CreativeDestruction | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
The Wisdom of Economics Bloggers
Economic growth is a process of innovation and technological change. In the wake of the Internet revolution of the 1990s, blogging emerged as a booming phenomenon that is manifestly creative and destructive. Blogging is entrepreneurial, to be sure, driven by individuals with either expertise or strong opinions, sometimes both. Once castigated as people in pajamas, the broad wave of bloggers has disrupted print media and even—perhaps ironically—the art and science of economics itself.
In the span of a few years, a rich and incredibly timely discussion, debate, even tutorial about the economy has emerged through blogging techniques that were unknown a decade ago and probably unimaginable by almost everyone two decades ago. Opinions and advice are available from the brightest minds—available to schoolchildren of today in ways that would have been the envy of Presidents and Kings of generations past.
The Kauffman Foundation is dedicated to the idea that entrepreneurship and innovation drive economic growth. Naturally, this new technology is a fascinating one, both for its effect on the economic research frontier, but also as an innovation in its own right.
On February 27, 2009, the Kauffman Foundation hosted the first ever physical conference for economics bloggers at the Foundation headquarters in Kansas City, Missouri. Participants included famous independent bloggers such as Matthew Yglesias, Tyler Cowen, Mike “Mish” Shedlock, Robert X. Cringely, and Mark Thoma as well as distinguished economics journalists such as Amity Shlaes, Steve Malanga, Michael Mandel, Brian Carney, and keynote speaker David Warsh.
A forum of so many high-profile participants offers a unique opportunity for discussion, but time constrains the number of ideas communicated. As a partial remedy, we asked each participant to write brief statements on a few of the topics in question. A collection of the written responses from participants at the 2009 Kauffman Economics Bloggers Forum is collected here, titled "The Wisdom of Economics Bloggers." Thanks to Lacey Graverson and Melody Dellinger who helped with layout, editing and design. And also to Barbara Pruitt for getting the word out!
Over the next few weeks, our video production team will also be releasing a series of web videos of interviews with all the respondents. Matt Pozel will be the invisible guy on the opposite end of those discussions, and he truly is a master.
The event would not have been possible without the support of my co-blogger Bob Litan, as well as Carl Schramm, who also opened the forum with a welcome address reminding us all about who Mr. Kauffman was and why the way out this recession will be led by job creating entrepreneurs like him. But the biggest support was behind the scenes by our superstar Glory Olson, who was in essence the composer and conductor -- overseeing planes, trains, automobiles, nametages, agendas, room layouts, distances between tall chairs, and even barbecue sauce. Glory is awesome! She was ably assisted by Dave Kaiser, Leslie Kenagy, Norma Getz, and many others. Thanks to everyone, but especially the partipants listed below
Alison Schrager http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/
Amity Shlaes http://www.amityshlaes.com/
Bob Cringely http://www.cringely.com/
Brian Carney http://www.Opinionjournal.com
David Warsh http://www.economicprincipals.com/
Gregg Gordon http://www.smirkingchimp.com/author/gregg_gordon
Mark Thoma http://economistsview.typepad.com/
Mark Perry http://mjperry.blogspot.com/
Matt Schreiber OM III Capital Management
Scott Jagow http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/scratchpad/
Seth Ditchik http://press.princeton.edu/
Sramana Mitra http://www.sramanamitra.com/
Steve Malanga http://www.realclearmarkets.com
Tim Kane http://www.growthology.org
Tyler Cowen http://www.marginalrevolution.com/
Bob Litan http://www.growthology.org
Arnold Kling http://econlog.econlib.org/
Ben Wildavsky http://www.kauffman.org
Carl Schramm http://www.kauffman.org
Charles Johnson http://www.growthology.org
Chris Lester http://www.kansascity.com/
Dane Stangler http://www.growthology.org
Don Boudreaux http://www.cafehayek.com/
EJ Reedy http://www.kauffman.org
Jeff Cornwall http://www.drjeffcornwall.com/
John McIntyre www.realclearpolitics.com
Lynne Kiesling http://knowledgeproblem.com/
Matt Rees http://www.whwg.com/thefirm/staff.php/46/Matthew__Rees
Matthew Yglesias http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/
Michael Anton http://www.kauffman.org
Michael Mandel http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/
Mike Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Paul Kedrosky http://paul.kedrosky.com/
Virginia Postrel http://www.dynamist.com/weblog/index.html
Wendy Guillies http://www.kauffman.org
Yves Smith http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
Finally, here is a partial list of posts Barbara found mid-day on Friday:
Posted by Tim Kane at 12:09 PM in Blogging | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
