Growing Pains

My inaugural column for Forbes.com, "Avoiding the Coming Growth Slowdown," is now up.  Here's a teaser:

Consider this puzzle. Compare economic performance in two periods: 1973-1990 versus 1990-2007. Both periods are 17 years in length; both begin and end with the last year of an economic expansion. In the earlier period, the U.S. economy weathered oil shocks, stagflation, and a punishing recession in the early ’80s, and growth in labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector limped along at a dismal 1.33 percent a year. In the latter period, prosperity was interrupted only by a pair of brief, mild recessions, and the IT revolution led a dazzling rebound in productivity growth up to 2.33 percent a year. Yet in 1973-1990, real gross domestic product per capita rose at an average annual rate of 1.93 percent – better than the 1.85 percent average annual growth rate during 1990-2007. How could that have happened?

Check out the whole thing.

Comments

[Andy]

I think that you are right that we should expect fairly low GDP per capita growth in the coming years (although I think that inflation is generally overstated, so this may be more an artifact of measurement).

However, I think there is a small chance (maybe 1-5%) that we blow way past any of these predictions and do get really large productivity gains, on the order of 5%/yr or more, as a result of another major technological shift. But these sorts of things are obviously hard to predict or plan for :).

[Christian louboutin slingback]

Christian Louboutin shoes are the accessories brand for every super-chic fashionista. Take the Christian louboutin slingback for example, they are sexy with the trademark red soles and noble for the fine material and fashion for the chic designs. Due to all the factors, everyone who has a glance will love the Christian louboutin slingback. I guess that you will have the same idea as almost popular women, so have a try please.