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February 25, 2011


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I think that you are right that we should expect fairly low GDP per capita growth in the coming years (although I think that inflation is generally overstated, so this may be more an artifact of measurement).

However, I think there is a small chance (maybe 1-5%) that we blow way past any of these predictions and do get really large productivity gains, on the order of 5%/yr or more, as a result of another major technological shift. But these sorts of things are obviously hard to predict or plan for :).

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