Sustainable or Green, but not both

Virginia Postrel suggested this fascinating question for the Q3 economics bloggers survey.  So much for green jobs, it seems.

Comments

[Dan Weber]

Interesting. "Green" technology is a bit vague, but I think that by 2020 an electric car will be viable on its own -- for some value of "viable."

Once a decent economy of scale is built up (it doesn't need to be anywhere near our gasoline engine's size), electric cars should be the cheaper option, if you lease the battery.

1. They are cheaper to buy, since electric motors are much simpler than internal combustion engines.

2. They are cheaper to maintain, since you do not have spark plugs, exhaust, oil changes, or many other systems.

3. They are cheaper on the per-mile option. A $3.00 per gallon, a 30 mpg car costs a dime per mile. Better Place (who I realize isn't impartial) thinks they can sell electric range for a nickel a mile.

There are people who will trade-off convenience in exchange for saving money or saving CO2. I can't say how many.

I would expect manufacturers to emphasize doing this in places like Israel and Japan, where limited range doesn't matter as much, have nuclear power, and that are even more concerned than the US about their fuel supplies. Particularly Israel, which is less than 100m by 300m and would really like to see the demand for oil fall.

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[Ecotwist]

I think this is a very pessimistic view of the future of green energy. I'm still upbeat about the potential. It's how you sell the idea. It's not a matter of option anymore, since the U.S. is lagging behind other countries, we need to catch up with the world - if we want to stay competitive.

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