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July 14, 2010

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Tim,

To my lights, you didn't answer Groves's key claim about it taking two orders of magnitude more dollars invested today to create jobs in the United States than it did several decades ago. If you look at the United States and China combined, then sure there's been growth, even more rapid growth. But you can't look at how incomes have risen in the Bay Area (for example) as evidence against Groves's claim. Whether investors have done well or not has nothing to do with the physical location of human capital development.

I think both you and Tyler make the same mistake in reading Groves. Groves's point is not at bottom a point about economic growth over the last two decades. I don't even see where he addresses that. It's about what our economic growth will be like over the NEXT two decades given the lack of human capital development infrastructure we have in the United States relative to China.

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