Signs of Recession

Fresh evidence that the recession hit in Q3 comes from this post & chart from Calculated Risk:

But in general, the two month estimate is pretty accurate. Maybe September was exceptionally strong (very unlikely from anecdotal evidence), or maybe July and August will be revised upwards, but the two month estimate suggests real PCE will decline in Q3 by about 2.4% (annual rate).

Pointer came from Econbrowser, which also has a good post.

PCE is not my favorite growth indicator, as loyal growthology readers know, but it is an important short-run reflection of GDP composition so attention must be paid.