In response to yesterday's post on American decline, the ever-perceptive Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture, had this to say: "By your analysis, this country can never move to the down side--its only numbers, and after all, we've always rebounded. Who can argue with logic such as that?"
A very good point. In light of this, I should refine my points. I'm not saying, of course, that the United States could never face decline: history, obviously, is Exhibit Infinity here.
My main point had more to do with what the recurrent declinists propose as remedies: almost unfailingly, a big-push government initiative. Yet when America did appear to face economic decline, we rebounded because of actions well below the radar, or a series of unconnected actions that came together to propel a new era of growth. There is, of course, a difference between absolute decline and relative decline (Kealey's book covers this well), and the proffered remedies might well hasten decline. In this sense, decline--when and if it came--might be like rebound: an unforeseen black swan.
And then there are various views of decline: economic, political, cultural, moral, etc. An oft-voiced complaint today, for example, is that our political discourse is too partisan and too polarized. I take the view that, while we certainly have issues, it's probably no worse today than, say, in 1800 or any other time in American history. Finally, there is the view, expressed by colleagues and in reader comments at our friend Paul Kedrosky's site, that perhaps the United States needs some sort of existential threat to spur it forward.
I stopped paying attention to the Barry's cute little blog because he wasn't giving anyone any new information. Also - his irrational rants on his experience at retailers question his creditability (which is now zero). If you can't put yourself in place of lay person instead of an overpaid pundit - you are useless.
Posted by: yoshi | August 15, 2008 at 10:12 PM