Get Ready for Big News Week

I thought today was a big news day: announcing advance GDP numbers for the U.S. in Q2. I anticipate that the winds will change very sharply against the recession bears when a 2+ annual growth rate is announced, especially when anything above 1 percent is basically a nail in the coffin of the 2008 recession bogeyman.

But somehow my calendar must have messed up, because the big Q2 release is next Thursday. In fact, in the arcane world of macro data geeks, next week is the equvalent of a doubleheader with back-to-back release dates:

Thursday GDP (likely very good news) -- July 31, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:

                     Advance estimate of gross domestic product for

                     the second quarter of 2008 and annual revision

                     (first quarter 2005 through first quarter 2008).

                     http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Friday Jobs (likely very bad news) -- August 1, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT) for:

                     The Employment Situation for July 2008

                     http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Comments

[odograph]

GDP is a great measure for some things. It certainly sizes the economy, and growth of the whole thing.

But if you want to kill my bear you should probably show households doing well or better ... now is net-worth faring in 2008?

(even better, net-worth for the income quintiles)

[odograph]

The other interesting number, as we ride into this recession-or-not, would be debt to worth ratios for American families.

Culture of Debt critics (including me) think we might have one of those famous situations: "If something cannot continue forever, it will stop."