My daughter is worried that robots may take over the world. Not to worry, I told her, we have one of those fancy remote controls that can turn off anything.
During my brief time at SDSU, I asked Vernor Vinge to lunch, and to my great pleasure he accepted. This is probably the single most insightful SF writer living today, author of multiple excellent novels and one penetrating (and famous) 1993 essay about the future of technology and its impact on human civilization which popularized the idea of a Singularity.
Now a free online magazine for tech insiders, Spectrum, has a special report on said Singularity. Very cool stuff indeed, and here are three favorites:
1. "Signs of the Singularity" by Vinge.
Economics arises from limitations on resources. Personally, I think there will always be such limits, if only because Mind's reach will always exceed its grasp. However, what is scarce for the new minds and how they deal with that scarcity will be mostly opaque to us.
2. "Economics of The Singularity" by Robin Hanson. I think this is Robin's lay version of a more technical paper he wrote framing growth over the very long term as a series of punctuated equilibria. Here's a sampling:
Though such growth may seem preposterous, consider that in the era of hunting and gathering, the economy doubled nine times; in the era of farming, it doubled seven times; and in the current era of industry, it has so far doubled 10 times. If, for some as yet unknown reason, the number of doublings is similar across these three eras, then we seem already overdue for another transition. If we instead compare our era with the era of brain growth, which doubled 16 times before humans appeared, we would expect the next transition by around 2075.
3. Who's Who - a one-page PDF with a dozen leading thinkers on the topic. Note, Ray Kurzweil, the great entrepreneur, is included.
Interesting stuff ... I like the idea that while AI (etc) progress may be slow, or may stall, there is the big IF. IF AIs make it, they will rapidly leverage themselves to intelligences we cannot foresee.
And I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.
Posted by: odograph | June 04, 2008 at 01:37 PM
Mr Kane do you really subscribe to this Millenarian rubbish?
Of the four means specified by Mr Vinge, the last two would simply be beneficial to humanity and the first two are utter bollocks.
I can recommend Future Hype as something of an antidote to the singularity technofear.
Posted by: Ben | June 05, 2008 at 12:15 AM
Ben, I don't subscribe to the conclusion that technology acceleration will destory humanity, but I don't think Vinge does either. I tend to be very optimistic about the future, actually, but I also think the long term outlook is fascinating. What happens in 200 years with a constant 2% growth rate? What if it accelerates to 3 or 4 percent? That is the gist of Hanson's conjecture, and it merits much more consideration than it gets.
Posted by: Tim Kane | June 05, 2008 at 12:34 PM
The battle of ideas is not won or lost in Congress, or even in elections, but in the long assessment of history. Just ask Qeng Ho.
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